A new Hilal: Inzaghi settles the situation of Martinelli and Watkins ahead of the Al-Shabab derby

I have witnessed countless winter transfer windows in my 53 years in the business, but rarely have I seen a club sign two expensive contracts from the Premier League within less than a week, and then throw them into a derby just 24 hours after the announcement. That is exactly what Al-Hilal is doing. They have just recruited Gabriel Martinelli from Arsenal for €65 million and Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa for an undisclosed but certainly not cheap fee. And now, ahead of them is the Riyadh derby against Al-Shabab – a hungry opponent waiting to break the champions' winning streak.

I remember back in 2026, when PSG triggered Neymar's €222 million release clause. A male colleague once mocked me: 'Women only know how to count salaries, they don't understand financial leverage.' I spent three weeks analyzing PSG's ownership structure and sponsorship contracts from Qatar. The result was an article that showed that deal would break the entire European wage ceiling. And now, Al-Hilal is doing the same in Saudi Arabia – not just spending money, but reshaping the market. A deal never dies on the negotiation table; it only dies when the phone battery runs out.

This derby is not just an ordinary match. Al-Hilal leads the table with 12 perfect points after 4 rounds, only ahead of Al-Nassr on goal difference. They just defeated Al-Ahli 3-0 in the Clasico, and now face Al-Shabab – a team that is not a title contender but always dangerous in derbies. The arrival of Martinelli and Watkins brings both opportunity and risk. Watkins already scored on his debut as a substitute against Al-Ahli, proving his fitness and quick adaptation. Martinelli, on the other hand, has only trained with the team less than 24 hours before the match. He may be on the squad list, but starting him from the beginning is a gamble.

People call the release clause the price of madness, but I call it the insurance ticket for those who dare to dream. Al-Hilal is dreaming of a new era. They spent over €65 million on Martinelli – a fair price for a 23-year-old who has proven himself in the Premier League, but also a huge pressure. If Martinelli doesn't score in his first few matches, the Saudi media will immediately label him a 'flop'. That's unfair, but it's the reality of top-level football. Watkins, at 28, is at his peak and this is probably his last big contract. He will play with strong motivation – either to prove himself, or to enjoy his final years in a less competitive league.

Tactically, Simone Inzaghi faces an interesting puzzle. He has a winning streak, and cramming two new signings into the starting lineup could disrupt the balance. I believe Inzaghi will keep Watkins as a starter – because he has already proven his adaptation – and keep Martinelli on the bench, using him as a powerful weapon in the second half. This both protects the young player from derby pressure and maintains stability for the team. Al-Shabab will play with high spirit, knowing that defeating Al-Hilal now would be a strong statement. But with a stronger attack, Al-Hilal remains the favorite.

FFP is not for punishment; it is a lesson on how to move money through drawers. In Saudi Arabia, there is no UEFA FFP, but there are AFC regulations and domestic rules. Al-Hilal is owned by PIF – the Saudi Public Investment Fund – so they are not bound by the strict financial rules like European clubs. However, overspending can create imbalance in the dressing room. Current players, like Salem Al-Dawsari or other forwards, may feel threatened. Inzaghi will need to manage egos well to maintain a positive atmosphere.

I have been following Saudi football since the 1990s, when I was a reporter for a Korean newspaper. Back then, this league was just a destination for old or washed-up players. But now, with the arrival of Ronaldo, Benzema, and now Martinelli and Watkins, the Saudi Pro League is becoming a real transfer market. Money is flowing from the Premier League to Saudi Arabia, and this changes the global landscape. Arsenal and Aston Villa receive large fees to reinvest in their squads, while Al-Hilal gets instant top-class players. This is a new cycle.

Back to the derby. I predict Al-Hilal will win, but not easily. Al-Shabab will play counter-attacking football, trying to exploit the lack of cohesion in Al-Hilal's defense if Martinelli is introduced. Watkins will score – I bet on that – because he is in form and understands his role. Martinelli may come off the bench and impress with his pace. If that happens, the 'New Hilal' story will be reinforced. If not, the media will start questioning the wisdom of such heavy spending.

Agents don't run after the ball; they run after the money flow. I just stand and watch where the money turns. And the money is turning toward Al-Hilal. This derby is the first test of their ambition. If Inzaghi handles the Martinelli and Watkins situation well, Al-Hilal will not only win this match, but also the entire season.

I will watch Friday's match closely. And I recommend you do too. Because in football, moments like this don't come often. This is when a team declares to the world that they are not just spenders, but dominators.